As people plug into the Oscar race now that we’re nearing the end of the run, I wanted a post where we linked all of our coverage so you can go back and check in on what’s happened so far.
Walter wrote out why, precisely, the next few years will be fundamentally different then the previous few when it comes to predicting the Oscars and thus why a model retool is necessary.
Michael laid out why actors who play real people have a leg up on the competition.
Walter went deep on why models factor in critics, when it’s worth listening to critic awards to predict the Oscars, and why the big-city critics matter less than you think.
Michael laid out the “Now, more than ever” campaign playbook.
Walter finished off the year with an analysis of the Academy membership and how its composition fundamentally changed in the past five years.
Michael offered up some early analysis of who was in the mix at the Golden Globes and Walter looked back on their mixed historical predictive power. Post-Globes, Michael analyzed the Backlash Phase of awards season.
Walter published his magnum dopus about what his new Oscar forecasting model will entail.
Nominations week: Michael previewed the nominations, then Walter laid out the rough look on which precursor awards would mean the most for actors. Then the nominations came out and we published some initial day-of stats, and Michael analyzed the nominees.
Michael gave a fascinating look at the drama in the awards races you haven’t been following, including Live Action Short, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Costume Design.
Ahead of the Screen Actors Guild awards Walter broke down where the Oscar race was heading based on the model.
Part Two of Michael’s look at the narratives in the categories you weren’t following, this time in Best Visual Effects and Best Foreign Language film.
Walter wrote up where we stood Post-DGA and Post-SAG. Answer: everything is a mess.
Walter laid out where we stand after the final big precursor awards, the BAFTAs.
Michael went through the history of the telecast
Walter rolled out the beta model for Best Picture, which simulates the Academy vote procedures
Walter wrote that the New Academy has the votes.
James England wrote a guest post about his model
Michael published his Oscar ballot
Walter published the model final predictions.
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