And they’re in!
We assign each precursor award a weight based on how well they performed in the past several years, with an emphasis on recent performance.
We look at the most recent 20 years and how well an award has done accurately “predicted” the Oscar winner, with the 10 most recent years worth twice as much as a typical year and the 5 most recent years worth three times as much. Nominees get a fifth of the possible points with a nomination for a precursor, and the full points with a win.
The scores will help us figure out the essential lay of the land for the race. Don’t focus too much on the number, and don’t compare different events, just focus on how the nominees compare to one another.
Later in the season, we’ll use them to run simulations of how those preferences may inform voting choices to get an actual probability. But for now, here are the categories as we see them.
We’ll have another update soon.