Hello and welcome back to Numlock Awards! If you’re joining us for the first time this season, Walter & I are excited to get to know you.

This is shaping up to be another slightly off awards season (the Golden Globes are back, but on a Tuesday; the SAG Awards are floating in the ether; we’ve lost 66% of last year’s Oscars hosts for one Jimmy Kimmel), so I wanted to do two things:

Give you an awards season calendar of major dates, and
Golden Globes predictions! Maybe even some bonus predictions on who won’t be attending the Globes after years of bad PR.

Major Dates

January 10, Golden Globe Awards
January 11, SAG & DGA Award nominations announced
January 12, Oscar nominations voting opens & PGA nominations announced
January 15, Critics’ Choice Awards
January 19, BAFTA nominations announced
January 24, Oscar nominations announced
January 25, WGA nominations announced
February 18, DGA Awards
February 19, BAFTAs
February 25, PGA Awards
February 26, SAG Awards, which have yet to find a TV home after being dropped by TNT and TBS
March 2, Oscar voting opens
March 5, WGA Awards
March 12, Oscar Night

We’re looking forward to spending the next few months with you all! As always, we’ll have Walter’s model and AMPAS membership analysis, deep dives into the technical and below-the-line categories, and all the narratives going into Oscar night. One of the best parts of doing this every year is engaging with all of you, so please reply to this email if you have any coverage suggestions or questions you want answered.

Globes Predictions

The Globes are back! Sort of! We’ll see who actually shows up given the wave of scandals the Globes suffered a few years back when it was discovered the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which hands out the Globes, had no Black members. There were also allegations about the HFPA being bribed by the folks behind Emily in Paris, and Scarlett Johansson accused the organization of sexist comments and questions over the years. Tom Cruise ended up handing his Globes back! And leading Best Actor contender Brendan Fraser won’t be attending this year given his assault accusations against former HFPA president Philip Berk.

There’s been a back-and-forth between the HFPA and Hollywood publicists this past year, and the Globes are back-ish now, with host Jerrod Carmichael. Without further ado, let’s do predictions, with my choices in bold. And if you want to send in your own ballot by Tuesday at 8, just reply to this email and I’ll give a shout-out to whoever gets the most Film winners correct.

Best Motion, Picture Drama

Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Triangle of Sadness

I’m going with the two flashiest entrants here. Elvis would be the second Baz Luhrmann movie to win a top Globe since 2001’s Moulin Rouge won for Best Musical or Comedy. I don’t think Everything Everywhere All at Once has much competition here, but my second pick would be Banshees.

Best Actress, Drama

Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Best Actor, Drama

Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son
Bill Nighy, Living
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

This is a safe space for Lydia Tár. Blanchett’s biggest competition is likely Michelle Yeoh, but Yeoh is in the Comedy/Musical category, so I think she’ll walk away with the Globe. And despite Fraser generally being the front-runner, I think his own history with the Globes gives Butler the edge.

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy

Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy

Diego Calva, Babylon
Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Adam Driver, White Noise
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

Michelle Yeoh should be the closest thing to a slam dunk at the Globes. Colin Farrell also seems highly likely, though I wouldn’t be upset if Craig’s second take on Benoit Blanc took this.

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Carey Mulligan, She Said

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

My thinking on Supporting Actress is this might be the place where Banshees can get in consistently over the next few months since it’s a less competitive category, and Kerry is the main female actor in her movie, which helps her stand out. Jamie Lee Curtis is probably the fourth most memorable person in Everything Everywhere, and the third most memorable female part. Ke Huy Quan, by contrast, is such a huge boon to that film’s emotional resonance, and his trajectory from in front of the camera to behind the camera to back in front is a great story.

Best Director

James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Best Screenplay

Todd Field, TÁR
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans

Best Original Score

Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking
Justin Hurwitz, Babylon
John Williams, The Fabelmans

Best Original Song

“Carolina” (Taylor Swift), Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa” (Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz, and Guillermo del Toro), Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” (Lady Gaga, BloodPop, and Benjamin Rice), Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” (Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Göransson), Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” (M.M. Keeravani, Kaala Bhairava, and Rahul Sipligunj), RRR

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Inu-Oh
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red

Best Non-English Language Film

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
RRR (India)

Hit me with your predictions and let’s see what happens on Tuesday!

Numlock Awards

Numlock Awards: The Kick-Off