Numlock Awards: The Kick-Off

A calendar for your awards-season needs and some Globes predictions.

Hello and welcome back to Numlock Awards! If you’re joining us for the first time this season, Walter & I are excited to get to know you.

This is shaping up to be another slightly off awards season (the Golden Globes are back, but on a Tuesday; the SAG Awards are floating in the ether; we’ve lost 66% of last year’s Oscars hosts for one Jimmy Kimmel), so I wanted to do two things: 

1. Give you an awards season calendar of major dates, and 

2. Golden Globes predictions! Maybe even some bonus predictions on who won’t be attending the Globes after years of bad PR. 

Major Dates

• January 10, Golden Globe Awards

• January 11, SAG & DGA Award nominations announced 

• January 12, Oscar nominations voting opens & PGA nominations announced 

• January 15, Critics’ Choice Awards 

• January 19, BAFTA nominations announced 

• January 24, Oscar nominations announced 

• January 25, WGA nominations announced 

• February 18, DGA Awards 

• February 19, BAFTAs 

• February 25, PGA Awards 

• February 26, SAG Awards, which have yet to find a TV home after being dropped by TNT and TBS

• March 2, Oscar voting opens 

• March 5, WGA Awards 

• March 12, Oscar Night 

We’re looking forward to spending the next few months with you all! As always, we’ll have Walter’s model and AMPAS membership analysis, deep dives into the technical and below-the-line categories, and all the narratives going into Oscar night. One of the best parts of doing this every year is engaging with all of you, so please reply to this email if you have any coverage suggestions or questions you want answered. 

Globes Predictions 

The Globes are back! Sort of! We’ll see who actually shows up given the wave of scandals the Globes suffered a few years back when it was discovered the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which hands out the Globes, had no Black members. There were also allegations about the HFPA being bribed by the folks behind Emily in Paris, and Scarlett Johansson accused the organization of sexist comments and questions over the years. Tom Cruise ended up handing his Globes back! And leading Best Actor contender Brendan Fraser won’t be attending this year given his assault accusations against former HFPA president Philip Berk. 

There’s been a back-and-forth between the HFPA and Hollywood publicists this past year, and the Globes are back-ish now, with host Jerrod Carmichael. Without further ado, let’s do predictions, with my choices in bold. And if you want to send in your own ballot by Tuesday at 8, just reply to this email and I’ll give a shout-out to whoever gets the most Film winners correct. 

Best Motion, Picture Drama

• Avatar: The Way of Water

• Elvis

• The Fabelmans

• TÁR

• Top Gun: Maverick

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

• Babylon

• The Banshees of Inisherin

• Everything Everywhere All at Once 

• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 

• Triangle of Sadness 

I’m going with the two flashiest entrants here. Elvis would be the second Baz Luhrmann movie to win a top Globe since 2001’s Moulin Rouge won for Best Musical or Comedy. I don’t think Everything Everywhere All at Once has much competition here, but my second pick would be Banshees. 

 Best Actress, Drama

• Cate Blanchett, TÁR

• Olivia Colman, Empire of Light 

• Viola Davis, The Woman King 

• Ana de Armas, Blonde 

• Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans 

Best Actor, Drama 

• Austin Butler, Elvis 

• Brendan Fraser, The Whale 

• Hugh Jackman, The Son 

• Bill Nighy, Living 

• Jeremy Pope, The Inspection 

This is a safe space for Lydia Tár. Blanchett’s biggest competition is likely Michelle Yeoh, but Yeoh is in the Comedy/Musical category, so I think she’ll walk away with the Globe. And despite Fraser generally being the front-runner, I think his own history with the Globes gives Butler the edge. 

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy

• Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

• Margot Robbie, Babylon 

• Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu 

• Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande 

• Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy 

• Diego Calva, Babylon 

• Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

• Adam Driver, White Noise 

• Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin 

• Ralph Fiennes, The Menu 

Michelle Yeoh should be the closest thing to a slam dunk at the Globes. Colin Farrell also seems highly likely, though I wouldn’t be upset if Craig’s second take on Benoit Blanc took this. 

Best Supporting Actress 

• Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

• Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin 

• Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

• Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness 

• Carey Mulligan, She Said 

Best Supporting Actor 

• Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin 

• Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin 

• Brad Pitt, Babylon 

• Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

• Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse 

My thinking on Supporting Actress is this might be the place where Banshees can get in consistently over the next few months since it’s a less competitive category, and Kerry is the main female actor in her movie, which helps her stand out. Jamie Lee Curtis is probably the fourth most memorable person in Everything Everywhere, and the third most memorable female part. Ke Huy Quan, by contrast, is such a huge boon to that film’s emotional resonance, and his trajectory from in front of the camera to behind the camera to back in front is a great story. 

 Best Director

• James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

• Baz Luhrmann, Elvis 

• Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin 

• Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans 

Best Screenplay

• Todd Field, TÁR

• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

• Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin 

• Sarah Polley, Women Talking 

• Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans 

Best Original Score

• Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin 

• Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 

• Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking 

• Justin Hurwitz, Babylon 

• John Williams, The Fabelmans 

Best Original Song

• “Carolina” (Taylor Swift), Where the Crawdads Sing 

• “Ciao Papa” (Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz, and Guillermo del Toro), Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 

• “Hold My Hand” (Lady Gaga, BloodPop, and Benjamin Rice), Top Gun: Maverick 

• “Lift Me Up” (Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Göransson), Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

• “Naatu Naatu” (M.M. Keeravani, Kaala Bhairava, and Rahul Sipligunj), RRR 

Best Animated Feature 

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 

• Inu-Oh

• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On 

• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

• Turning Red 

Best Non-English Language Film 

• All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) 

• Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) 

• Close (Belgium) 

• Decision to Leave (South Korea) 

• RRR (India) 

Hit me with your predictions and let’s see what happens on Tuesday!