I guess I'm asking if it's possible to make the model apply to the minor awards? All I know about stats I've learned from you so if it's a stupid question then please let me know haha
The sample size is a bit small when it comes to precursors. Walter tried it with documentaries and animated feature in his 538 days and never gained the confidence you could actually predict them using precursors.
What about the Screenplay categories? For them, you can also include the WGA awards right? Don't they then have roughly the same sample size as the directing/actor ones?
You pretty much nailed it. And really, wasn't The Brutalist rather self-indulgent, at 3h20m? Anora was, in fact, a better movie. We sure got to see a lot of Sean Baker last night!
Will you do a technical awards post or is there not enough data from other awards to predict them?
Hello! The model itself is only for the major awards (acting/directing/picture), but Michael will send out his full ballot before the Oscars.
I guess I'm asking if it's possible to make the model apply to the minor awards? All I know about stats I've learned from you so if it's a stupid question then please let me know haha
The sample size is a bit small when it comes to precursors. Walter tried it with documentaries and animated feature in his 538 days and never gained the confidence you could actually predict them using precursors.
What about the Screenplay categories? For them, you can also include the WGA awards right? Don't they then have roughly the same sample size as the directing/actor ones?
I love to see a tight race, but I also hope Demi Moore wins. Her "popcorn actress" speech at the Globes was very moving.
Rooting for Mikey Madison because I can't handle The Substance (I'm squeamish!) -- Michael
You pretty much nailed it. And really, wasn't The Brutalist rather self-indulgent, at 3h20m? Anora was, in fact, a better movie. We sure got to see a lot of Sean Baker last night!