Numlock Awards: The Oscar Race, right before the nominations are announced.

Numlock Awards is your one-stop awards season newsletter, and it’s back! Every week, join Walt Hickey and Michael Domanico as they break down the math behind the Oscars and the best narratives going into film’s biggest night. Today’s edition comes from Walter.

Tomorrow night are the Critics’ Choice Awards, which are the most predictive critics’ prize when it comes to Best Picture and Best Director, though they lag the Globes a bit when it comes to the acting prizes. It’ll be an interesting contest to determine the state of the race to win an Oscar, but this week is also huge because it’s Oscar nominations week!

Voting closed last Tuesday, right after a whole slate of nominations from the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and BAFTA were announced. Those awards are huge, because lots of the people in DGA, PGA, and BAFTA are also in the Academy, so we tend to really care about their opinion much more than, say, a couple dozen journalists in the thirty-mile zone.

So this post is just a top-to-bottom check-in ahead of the nominations announcement to lay out where we stand. Tomorrow, Michael will go through some of the contenders who have a shot at a nomination despite the odds. On Tuesday, you’ll get a special roundup of the Oscar nominees, and quick takes and looks as to where we stand with them. This is the perfect time to tell a friend to sign up or share this.

Best Picture

It’s a steady race with a lot of options and no clear frontrunner. The Globes had some surprises, but it’s the Globes we’re talking about here, not an award show that’s interesting or that matters or anything. Here are the current scores as they stand, based on the five predictive local critics’ prizes, Guild nominations, and Golden Globes.

I’ve also listed each one with some emojis next to it: 💰 if they got a Producers Guild nomination, 🎬 for the Directors Guild, 🇬🇧 for BAFTA, 🎭 for Screen Actors, and 🍅 for Critics’ Choice, which is this Sunday. If there’s no nomination I put ➖.

This is mainly to give you a sense of how much unlocked potential the movie has for the rest of the cycle. A movie with 💰 🎬 🇬🇧 🎭🍅 will have several opportunities to win prizes and drive its current score up, while a movie with ➖➖🇬🇧➖➖ is going to have some trouble and may have hit a ceiling.

As a reminder, 79% of the available points on the board emanate from these five prizes, so we’re still technically in early stages of the race.

  1. 64 points • 💰🎬🇬🇧➖🍅 • 1917

  2. 62 points • 💰🎬🇬🇧🎭🍅 • The Irishman

  3. 62 points • 💰🎬🇬🇧🎭🍅 • Parasite

  4. 60 points • 💰🎬🇬🇧🎭🍅 • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

  5. 52 points • 💰🎬➖🎭🍅 • Jojo Rabbit

  6. 38 points • 💰➖🇬🇧➖🍅 • Joker

  7. 34 points • 💰➖➖➖🍅 • Marriage Story

  8. 28 points • 💰➖➖➖🍅 • Ford v Ferrari

  9. 27 points • 💰➖➖➖🍅 • Little Women

  10. 25 points • 💰➖➖➖➖ • Knives Out

  11. 8 points • ➖➖➖🎭➖ • Bombshell

  12. 6 points • ➖➖➖➖🍅 • Uncut Gems

  13. 3 points • ➖➖➖➖➖ • Booksmart

  14. 2 points • ➖➖➖➖➖ • The Two Popes

With nominations out this week, the Academy can select anywhere from five to ten entries. You could draw that line in a couple of different places depending on your own view in the race, so I’m not going to do that and just going to leave it to you.

It’s hardly unheard of for the Academy to throw a Best Picture nom to an offbeat one either unloved by the precursors — I’m thinking of nominees like Room, Hell or High Water, or Phantom Thread — so even the stretches are still in this race to an extent. Michael’s going to have more on that tomorrow.

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Best Actress

The acting prizes have fewer big awards to highlight, just SAG (🎭, worth 110 for a win) and BAFTA (🇬🇧, worth 59) really.

  1. 96 points 🎭🇬🇧 | Renée Zellweger, Judy

  2. 60 points 🎭🇬🇧 | Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

  3. 47 points 🎭🇬🇧 | Charlize Theron, Bombshell

  4. 35 points 🎭➖ | Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

  5. 33 points 🎭➖ | Lupita Nyong'o, Us

  6. 25 points ➖🇬🇧 | Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

  7. 13 points ➖➖ | Awkwafina, The Farewell

  8. 12 points ➖🇬🇧 | Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose

Best Actor

Actor is a little easier to suss out than Actress here, only because the precursor track record is a little better, with SAG (worth 128 for a win) and BAFTA (worth 59).

  1. 111 points🎭🇬🇧 | Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

  2. 71 points 🎭🇬🇧 | Adam Driver, Marriage Story

  3. 43 points 🎭🇬🇧 | Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood

  4. 38 points 🎭🇬🇧 | Taron Egerton, Rocketman

  5. 38 points 🎭➖ | Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari

  6. 24 points ➖🇬🇧 | Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

  7. 22 points ➖➖ | Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

  8. 17 points ➖➖ | Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

  9. 5 points ➖➖ | Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name

  10. 5 points ➖➖ | Robert De Niro, The Irishman

Best Supporting Actor

The smallest field of contenders in the bunch. Only seven people have put up any prizes in this category this season, and only one person has won most of them.

  1. 141 points🎭🇬🇧 | Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood

  2. 67 points 🎭🇬🇧 | Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

  3. 57 points 🎭🇬🇧 | Al Pacino, The Irishman

  4. 57 points 🎭🇬🇧 | Joe Pesci, The Irishman

  5. 36 points ➖🇬🇧 | Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

  6. 20 points 🎭➖ | Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy

  7. 9 points ➖➖ | Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

I’ll admit up front that I’m biased, but if any of the Parasite actors break through and get a nomination despite their total lack of precursors, I’d bet it’s Song Kang-ho in this category.

Best Supporting Actress

Similar to Supporting Actor in that one person is cleaning up, dissimilar in that the field’s fairly wide here.

  1. 127 points🎭🇬🇧 | Laura Dern, Marriage Story

  2. 61 points 🎭➖ | Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

  3. 61 points 🎭🇬🇧 | Margot Robbie, Bombshell

  4. 51 points 🎭🇬🇧 | Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

  5. 26 points 🎭➖ | Nicole Kidman, Bombshell

  6. 25 points ➖🇬🇧 | Florence Pugh, Little Women

  7. 16 points ➖🇬🇧 | Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood

  8. 10 points ➖➖ | Annette Bening, The Report

  9. 10 points ➖➖ | Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

  10. 9 points ➖➖ | Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell

Best Director

A completely wide open race. Going to be a fun/anxiety-inducing one. The DGA Award (🎬) is worth 157 points, so it’s still a completely open contest, and that also means that the model will enter Oscar night fairly cocksure even if I don’t think it should be.

  1. 107 points🎬🇬🇧 | Sam Mendes, 1917

  2. 67 points 🎬🇬🇧 | Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood

  3. 60 points 🎬🇬🇧 | Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

  4. 60 points 🎬🇬🇧 | Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

  5. 31 points 🎬➖ | Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

  6. 21 points ➖🇬🇧 | Todd Phillips Joker

  7. 8 points ➖ ➖ | Greta Gerwig, Little Women

  8. 8 points ➖➖ | Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

  9. 8 points ➖➖ | Safdie Brothers, Uncut Gems

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Have a great weekend!