Numlock Awards: Michael's Final Ballot

All the categories, all the risk.

Numlock Awards is your one-stop awards season newsletter. Every week, join Walt Hickey and Michael Domanico as they break down the math behind the Oscars and the best narratives going into film’s biggest night. Today’s edition comes from Michael.

We’ve reached Oscar Sunday! It’s been a pleasure chatting with you all throughout this pretty wild awards season. As usual, please send in your questions after the Oscars for our annual Q&A edition! Feel free to comment on this post or reply to this email to do so.

Without further ado, here’s my full Oscar ballot, with predictions in bold and at the top. Let me know your picks, too! (And as a reminder, here’s Walter’s model for the major categories.)

Best Picture

• Anora

• The Brutalist

• A Complete Unknown

• Conclave

• Dune: Part Two

• Emilia Pérez

• I’m Still Here

• Nickel Boys

• The Substance

• Wicked

Best Director

• Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

• Sean Baker, Anora

• James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

• Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

• Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Best Actress

• Mikey Madison, Anora

• Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

• Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

• Demi Moore, The Substance

• Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Quick reasoning here: Demi Moore’s run reminds me somewhat of Sylvester Stallone in Creed or Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler, who were both popular “popcorn actors,” as Demi memorably put it in her Globes speech, and it felt like they could win a career Oscar at the time. Both ultimately lost — Stallone to Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies and Rourke to Sean Penn in Milk — and in a nail-biter of a race, I’ll give the edge to Mikey Madison, should history repeat itself.

Best Actor

• Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

• Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

• Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

• Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

• Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Best Supporting Actress

• Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

• Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

• Ariana Grande, Wicked

• Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

• Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Best Supporting Actor

• Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

• Yura Borisov, Anora

• Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

• Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

• Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Original Screenplay

• A Real Pain

• Anora

• The Brutalist

• September 5

• The Substance

I know a lot of folks are saying Anora, but a lot of the press tour around Anora has been how much freedom Sean Baker gave to the actors to improvise, which I always think counts against the script for voters.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Conclave

• A Complete Unknown

• Emilia Pérez

• Nickel Boys

• Sing Sing

Best Animated Feature

• Flow

• Inside Out 2

• Memoir of a Snail

• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

• The Wild Robot

Best International Feature

• I’m Still Here (Brazil)

• Emilia Pérez (France)

• Flow (Latvia)

• The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

• The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

I’m Still Here got a surprise Best Picture nod, and yes, Emilia Pérez has been doing well in this category at other shows, but there may be a share-the-wealth vibe in the Academy since many are expecting Emilia Pérez to win in some other major categories, like Best Supporting Actress.

Best Documentary Feature

• No Other Land

• Black Box Diaries

• Porcelain War

• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

• Sugarcane

Best Documentary Short

• I Am Ready, Warden

• Death by Numbers

• Incident

• Instruments of a Beating Heart

• The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Best Live Action Short

• A Lien

• Anuja

• I’m Not a Robot

• The Last Ranger

• The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Best Animated Short

• Wander to Wonder

• Beautiful Men

• In the Shadow of the Cypress

• Magic Candles

• Yuck!

Best Original Score

• The Brutalist

• Conclave

• Emilia Pérez

• Wicked

• The Wild Robot

Best Original Song

• “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez

• “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight

• “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing

• “Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez

• “Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late

Emilia Pérez is a controversial movie, but “El Mal” is uncontroversially a bop.

Best Sound

• A Complete Unknown

• Dune: Part Two

• Emilia Pérez

• Wicked

• The Wild Robot

Best Production Design

• Conclave

• The Brutalist

• Dune: Part Two

• Nosferatu

• Wicked

Best Cinematography

• The Brutalist

• Dune: Part Two

• Emilia Pérez

• Maria

• Nosferatu

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• The Substance

• A Different Man

• Emilia Pérez

• Nosferatu

• Wicked

Best Costume Design

• Nosferatu

• A Complete Unknown

• Conclave

• Gladiator II

• Wicked

Best Film Editing

• Anora

• The Brutalist

• Conclave

• Emilia Pérez

• Wicked

Best Visual Effects

• Dune: Part Two

• Alien: Romulus

• Better Man

• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

• Wicked

Enjoy Oscar night!