Numlock Awards: Let's Get Started
A brief rundown of what's to come.
Numlock Awards is your one-stop awards season newsletter. Every week, join Walt Hickey and Michael Domanico as they break down the math behind the Oscars and the best narratives going into film’s biggest night. Today’s edition comes from Michael.
Hello and happy new year!
We’re super excited to spend the next couple of months with you all talking about awards season. To kick us off, I’m going to go over what the calendar looks like for this awards season, which will be fully underway with this Sunday’s Golden Globes. And, just for the heck of it, I’ll throw in some of my hunches for the big races (and I’d love to hear yours, too!).
Here is the schedule for awards season:
January 5: Golden Globe Awards
January 8: SAG & DGA nominations, plus Oscar nominations voting begins
January 10: PGA nominations
January 12: Critics’ Choice Awards, plus Oscar nominations voting ends
January 17: Oscar nominations
February 8: DGA & PGA Awards
February 11 to February 18: Final Oscar voting
February 23: SAG Awards
March 2: Academy Awards
We have two weeks until the Oscar nominations and two months until the show itself, with plenty of modeling and forecasting to come.
Just for fun, my early hunches right now for the lead acting categories are Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) and Mikey Madison (Anora). Chalamet has a previous nomination under his belt, big hit movies like Wonka and the Dune franchise balanced out with smaller indies like Ladybird, and he’s playing an iconic musician, which has worked well in the past (just ask Rami Malek and Jamie Foxx).
Madison is much newer on the scene but is probably Anora’s best shot at a major award. She’s in one of the most acclaimed movies of the season, particularly in the Best Actress race, and she’s in every frame of the film.
For supporting categories, I’m currently leaning toward Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Perez). If you’ve seen A Real Pain, you know Culkin gets to do basically everything: he’s the comic relief, he’s the heart of the movie, he’s the thing that keeps it moving. Saldaña is arguably the lead of Emilia Perez and she’s a well-respected actor who’s never quite gotten her due despite being in some of the biggest franchises ever (Avatar, Star Trek, Guardians of the Galaxy, and of course Crossroads).
What are your hunches right now? Any contenders you’re pulling for?
One missing contender this year is Challengers. It won last night for its score only - not a good sign that it will receive a lot of love this season. Easily my favourite movie of 2024.
Interesting that you say Madison is Anora's best shot at a major award. Does that imply you don't think Anora is the favorite for Best Picture at the Oscars, or Best Musical/Comedy at the Globes?