Numlock Awards: An All-Category Ballot
Any chance TÁR can still pull off the upset of the century?
Numlock Awards is your one-stop awards season newsletter. Every week, join Walt Hickey and Michael Domanico as they break down the math behind the Oscars and the best narratives going into film’s biggest night. Today’s edition comes from Michael.
Hi everyone,
Thank you so much for joining us for another awards season. As always, we’ll wrap things up with a mailbag, so keep sending in thoughts, comments or questions to awards@numlock.news.
Here’s my ballot for tonight’s ceremony (predicted winners in bold). And as a reminder, Walter broke down his model’s predictions in the top categories yesterday.
Best Picture:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Best Director:
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actress:
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
This is where I’m splitting with Walter’s model, which gives a slight edge to Emma Stone. If she didn’t already have an Oscar in this category, I’d be more inclined to tilt slightly toward her, but this is basically a redux of last year. Do you give someone an additional Oscar for their work in a bizarre, auteur-driven work, someone who the BAFTAs awarded already (Cate Blanchett in Tár), or do you vote for someone who would win their first Oscar, someone who picked up the SAG Award (Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once)? I’m going with the latter, and am expecting Lily Gladstone to become a first-time winner.
Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Supporting Actress:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Best Supporting Actor:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Best Adapted Screenplay:
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Best Animated Feature:
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best International Feature:
Io capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
Best Documentary Feature:
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
Best Documentary Short:
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Best Live Action Short:
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Wes Anderson winning his first Oscar for a short film just feels right. I, for one, cannot wait to see what color bow-tie he has on.
Best Animated Short:
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Best Original Score:
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Original Song:
“It Never Went Away,” American Symphony
“I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
“What Was I Made For?” Barbie
“The Fire Inside,” Flamin’ Hot
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)”, Killers of the Flower Moon
This one pains me a bit — Billie Eilish and Billie Eilish’s Brother wrote a pretty bleak, boring song for Barbie (sorry!), but for some fun trivia they will become the youngest double winners in history. At least Ryan Gosling is performing “I’m Just Ken,” and we’ll get to see Diane Warren’s losing face in another little square.
Best Sound:
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
This should go to The Zone of Interest, but Oppenheimer seems like the obvious frontrunner. This is when I wish we could go back to Best Sound Mixing — which The Zone of Interest would be incredibly competitive in — and Best Sound Editing — which Oppenheimer would deservedly win. But with the consolidation of these categories, I am leaning toward Oppenheimer. The BAFTAs did break for The Zone of Interest, and I’ll be delighted if that happens again.
Best Production Design:
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Listen, I thought Barbie still had an edge going into Oscar night here, but then Poor Things picked up the BAFTA and I think it’s cresting at the right time.
Best Cinematography:
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Best Costume Design:
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Film Editing:
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Visual Effects:
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Feel free to shoot over your own ballots and how you did, and we’ll see you soon for our mailbag!