Numlock Awards: The 2021 Oscar Nominations

Numlock Awards is your one-stop awards season newsletter, and it’s back! Every week, join Walt Hickey and Michael Domanico as they break down the math behind the Oscars and the best narratives going into film’s biggest night. Today’s edition comes from Walter.

They’re here!

Going to be quick today. The chart shows the current state of the race for the nominees. The model works by assigning a weight to each precursor award given the historical reliability of that precursor prize correctly predicting the Oscar. You get a fifth of the credit if you score a nomination and full credit if you win it. You can see the weights for all precursors in this spreadsheet.

Best Actress

It’s a free-for-all! Read more about this race from Michael here.

Best Actor

Needless to say, we have a favorite in this category.

Best Picture

The Academy is in flux, some branches rise and others fall, and this year sees a critical inflection point where the New Academy may very well outnumber the Old Academy. It’s an incredibly exciting time, and anything is possible in Best Picture.

Best Supporting Actress

This race is really one to watch, again read more about this race from Michael here.

Best Supporting Actor

We have a favorite here as well, but this race isn’t over.

Best Director

Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) ran the table at the precursors in a way I have never seen before.

See you next weekend for more on these nominations as they develop.

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